# Strategic Gamble

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Venezuela's Political Crisis and U.S.& Latin America Relations Executive Summary On January 3, 2026 , U.S. forces carried out a raid on Caracas ("Operation Absolute Resolve") that captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife , longtime political figure Cilia Flores, and flew them to New York to face narco-terrorism charges — an action supporters call a lawful "capture" and critics call an unlawful "kidnapping."The operation, which involved Delta Force special operations troops and CIA intelligence support, marked a dramatic escalation of a monthslong pressure campaign that began in September 2025 with U.S. military strikes on alleged drug-trafficking boats in the Caribbean. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez became acting president , in a transition U.S. officials describe as closely guided from Washington.The Trump administration's declared plan is to "run" the country remotely while sidelining the opposition, which risks leaving Venezuelans worse off than before, according to critics. Core U.S. sanctions remain formally intact even after Maduro's removal, though partial oil and banking relief has been extended to the interim government.Notably, the US government has left in power the remaining leadership of the Maduro administration, including multiple sanctioned individuals with whom US persons are prohibited from dealing absent Treasury authorization. More than 7.6 million Venezuelans have been forcibly displaced — the largest exodus in Latin America's recent history and one of the largest displacement crises in the world. Outflows have recently slowed, but sustained return remains uncertain. Venezuela possesses the world's largest proven oil reserves at roughly 303 billion barrels, yet current production has collapsed to under 1.1 million barrels per day, so near-term market impact is limited even as long-run supply potential draws sustained U.S. interest. Background Venezuela's GDP contracted by more than 80% from 2013 to 2020, and even after 2024 growth, the economy remains less than half the size it was in 2013. The disputed July 2024 election, in which Maduro claimed victory even after results indicated he lost, deepened the crisis. Through 2025, Washington escalated pressure: Secretary of State Rubio designated Tren de Aragua a foreign terrorist organization and the "Cartel de los Soles" a Specially Designated Global Terrorist entity, doubled the reward for Maduro's arrest to $50 million, and deployed Navy ships near Venezuela. This culminated in the January 3, 2026 raid and Maduro's arraignment in New York. Since then, over 621 political prisoners were confirmed released by early March 2026, with an estimated 500-plus still detained, and a June 2026 earthquake added new humanitarian strain. Sanctions vs. Diplomacy: Remaining Leverage Mechanism:   The vast majority of US sanctions against Venezuela derive from executive orders and can be reversed by the sitting president, with no major statute requiring congressional termination — giving Washington unusually direct leverage. Use so far: U.S. officials have said they intend to pressure the acting government to allow the United States to direct oil sales and proceeds, limiting the role of adversaries in the sector, while all core Venezuela sanctions, including those covering PDVSA and Minerven, remain formally in place pending amendment. Selective relief has followed: an expanded general license eased the naval blockade on oil exports, and in April 2026 the Treasury eased sanctions on Venezuela's state-run financial system to let it use U.S. currency and reenter the U.S.-controlled global financial system, explicitly to stabilize the Rodríguez government. Constraint: Leverage is not unlimited. Acting president Rodríguez publicly declared "enough" of Washington's orders over Venezuelan politicians, even as her government remains dependent on U.S. sanctions and licensing decisions. Trade-offs: Diplomacy retains tools — conditional licensing, prisoner-release exchanges, and reconstruction financing (rebuilding the oil sector alone could require over $100 billion in investment and at least a decade of sustained effort) — but the contested legality of the January operation itself has complicated Washington's ability to invoke rule-of-law arguments multilaterally, and a global oil oversupply reduces the strategic payoff of prioritizing Venezuelan barrels. Migration Dynamics Push factors: Persistent poverty (roughly 73.2% of Venezuela's population lived in poverty in 2024, per a national university survey), damaged infrastructure, and continued political uncertainty sustain outmigration even after Maduro's removal. Scale and Destinations: Of the displaced, 6.2 million are hosted within Latin America and the Caribbean, and over 1.2 million asylum-seekers have applied worldwide, with most in Colombia. Since January 2022, Brazil recorded the largest net migrant accumulation (over 375,000), followed by Colombia (~61,500) and Ecuador (~38,500). The Darién Gap remains a key onward corridor toward Central America, Mexico, and the U.S., alongside pendular cross-border movement into Colombia for food and medical access. Post-capture shift: In 2025, a significant shift emerged, with return movements increasingly surpassing new departures for the first time. Still, most Venezuelans abroad are not yet ready to make a definitive decision about return, as the political situation inside Venezuela remains fluid. Neighboring impacts: Colombia condemned the U.S. strikes and announced plans to fortify its 2,219-kilometre border, with analysts warning the security situation could deteriorate further. U.S. policy implications: Washington has simultaneously pursued repatriation — at least 273 migrants returned from the U.S. and 311 from Mexico in late January 2026 alone — while ending some deportation protections, even as underlying conditions for sustainable large-scale return remain unresolved. Reasons and Disputed Legal Status of the January 2026 Operation Note on framing: Venezuela has no "prime minister" — it is a presidential republic. The individuals taken were President Maduro and his wife, political figure Cilia Flores, not multiple prime ministers. Stated U.S. rationale : Officials frame the raid as law enforcement against indicted fugitives. Representative Mike Waltz characterized it as a "surgical law enforcement operation" to arrest two alleged narcoterrorists. Disputed legality: This is heavily contested. Mary Ellen O'Connell, a Notre Dame law professor, said the operation is effectively a "kidnapping" that violates core principles of the UN Charter. Academic analysis in the Hague Journal on the Rule of Law notes the U.S. made no attempt to justify the action under international law, arguing no such justification exists. Condemnation also came from Mexico, France, China, Russia, and UN Secretary-General António Guterres, alongside U.S. legal experts who noted the operation lacked congressional or UN approval. Divided regional reaction: Argentina's Milei called Maduro's capture "a decisive step forward" against narco-terrorism, while Venezuela's UN ambassador denounced an "illegitimate armed attack" and "kidnapping." Impacts: Both U.S. allies and rivals worry the capture sets a precedent for further American intervention, even as reactions were often shaped more by alignment with Washington than by Maduro himself. Domestically, it opened political-prisoner releases and tentative economic reform, alongside unresolved questions over sovereignty and control of the transition. Outlook  Negotiated stabilization — Sanctions relief expands, oil investment resumes, elections timeline emerges, migration gradually stabilizes. Watch: further OFAC licenses, credible election commitments. Contested drift — Rodríguez balances U.S. pressure and Chavista factions without a clear democratic transition; migration patterns persist largely unchanged. Watch: repeated friction with Washington, stalled electoral reform. Renewed crisis — Internal power struggles, earthquake-driven strain, or reversal of relief reignite instability and a new outflow wave. Watch: reimposed blockade, spikes in Darién Gap crossings, escalation at the OAS/UN over the operation's legality.