# Global Gap

By [DYLIT Chronicles](https://dylit.info/user/dylitmediabuzz)

[Global Finance](https://dylit.info/pr/global-finance/6a6849fd61bb0e07120aa486) > [Global Gap](https://dylit.info/ch/global-gap/6a6849fd61bb0e07120aa4ae)

Ship Fuel Crisis Looms — Global Economy Braces for Impact War and Refinery Squeeze Drive the Shortage The looming fuel oil shortage traces back to February 28, 2026, when the U.S. and Israel struck Iran and Iran retaliated by threatening and attacking tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, a passage that normally carries about a fifth of the world's seaborne oil and LNG. Traffic through the strait collapsed for weeks, and even after a June ceasefire attempt broke down in July, the corridor has stayed dangerous. Ukrainian drone strikes have battered Russian refineries too, pushing Russia's fuel oil exports to a record low in August. Middle East fuel oil exports fell 45% year over year from March to August, hurt by outages like Kuwait's Al-Zour refinery, once a major exporter, which has shipped almost nothing since March. Refiners elsewhere aren't helping. Facing record-low gasoline and diesel stocks, plants like Nigeria's Dangote refinery have shifted output toward more profitable diesel, gasoline and jet fuel, some even burning fuel oil as feedstock, tightening the market further. Ships are also burning more fuel by taking longer routes around the Red Sea to dodge Houthi attacks. The Numbers: A 218,000-Barrel Gap Energy Aspects projects a global fuel oil deficit of about 218,000 barrels per day for the third quarter of 2026, the first meaningful shortfall since Q3 2025, when the gap was a negligible 6,000 bpd. Rystad Energy has reached a similar view, citing critically tight supply from the drawn-out Middle East disruption. Both forecasts assume the war-related bottlenecks persist through the quarter, refiners keep favoring diesel and jet fuel, and ships continue avoiding the shortest routes. Storage data backs this up: fuel oil stocks in Singapore, the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub and Fujairah sit roughly 30% below their three-year seasonal averages. Prices already reflect the strain. Very low sulphur fuel oil in Singapore has jumped 76% since the war began, trading near $825 a metric ton (about $130 a barrel) as of September 1, far outpacing the roughly 40% rise in Brent crude over the same period. Asia and the Middle East Bear the Brunt Asia is expected to feel the squeeze hardest, since Singapore, the world's biggest bunkering hub, imports more than half of its nearly 1 million barrels a day of fuel demand from the Gulf. With that flow disrupted, ships refueling across Southeast Asia face the steepest price increases and the greatest risk of running short. The Middle East is caught in the middle too, its refineries battered by strikes even as its waters remain the riskiest to navigate. Europe's ARA hub has seen stocks fall as well, though less severely, while Asia-Europe lanes through the Red Sea and Suez Canal stay thinned out by rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, a detour that burns extra fuel on every voyage. Rising Costs and the Options Ahead Higher bunker prices are already feeding into freight rates through bunker adjustment surcharges, which some carriers have raised 20% to 50% on major lanes this year. Fed researchers estimate container fuel costs on a China-to-U.S. West Coast voyage roughly doubled after an earlier 2026 oil shock, from $155 to $269 on newer ships and $360 to $626 on older ones. Since ships carry around 80% of world trade by volume, that added cost could eventually reach consumer prices, though carriers say they're absorbing most of it for now. Slow steaming, convoys and detours are already delaying deliveries, and a sudden rush of vessels back through Hormuz or the Red Sea if hostilities ease could trigger fresh port congestion. Near term, owners are leaning on slower speeds and route planning to conserve fuel. Longer term, the shift toward alternatives like LNG and methanol hinges partly on the IMO's Net-Zero Framework, a global carbon-pricing plan approved in principle in 2025 but delayed once and now awaiting a fresh vote later this year. Until Middle East routes stabilize and that regulatory picture clears, the fuel market looks set to stay tight.   Sources Reuters (via Investing.com) — "Analysis-Ship fuel shortage looms as refiners strained by war favour other products": https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/analysisship-fuel-shortage-looms-as-refiners-strained-by-war-favour-other-products-4890336 International Maritime Organization — IMO Net-Zero Framework FAQs: https://www.imo.org/en/mediacentre/hottopics/pages/faqs-the-imo-net-zero-framework.aspx Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — "Oil Prices and Container Shipping Costs": https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jul/oil-prices-container-shipping-costs Related Videos Bunker Fuel Crisis 2026: Is the Shipping Industry About to Run Out of Fuel?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEn1K2Xpan4 2026 Shipping Crisis: Frontloading, Fuel Costs, and Port Wars | What the New Tariffs Mean For You: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUbH8Ei8YKA The Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Week 8 Recap: Competing Blockades and Piracy Surge: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XODPzVrIr9w