# Global Events

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Gaza's Postwar Reconstruction and the Question of Who Governs Core question: who could govern Gaza, and with what mandate? No model is agreed. A fragile ceasefire holds as of mid-2026, but the machinery of governance — police, courts, ministries — remains unresolved, blocking reconstruction and risking renewed conflict. Gaza: Needs and Governance Gaps A joint World Bank–UN–EU assessment put reconstruction needs at ~$53 billion in early 2025, revised to ~$70–71.5 billion by 2026, with $26.3 billion needed in the first 18 months (World Bank; TRT World). Over 60% of Gazans lost homes; the economy contracted over 80% (World Bank). Analysis: Rebuilding needs institutions able to receive funds and maintain order — absent uniformly, since Hamas retains local security control in parts of Gaza even as rival plans contest its authority (Baker Institute). Israel: Security and Border Policy Israel's stated aim has been ending Hamas's governing role and preventing rearmament, and it has resisted an unreformed Palestinian Authority (PA) taking Gaza over outright, pressing instead for demilitarization and international guarantees (Wilson Center; CNAS). Analysis: Since Israel controls key crossings, its approval is a practical precondition for material entry, whatever governance model is chosen. Egypt: Rafah, Mediation, and the Arab Plan Egypt mediated the ceasefires and hosted a March 4, 2025 Arab League summit endorsing a $53 billion plan rejecting displacement and proposing the PA's return to govern Gaza (Middle East Eye; J Street). This became the basis for the Arab League's Cairo Statement and later New York Declaration (J Street; UN). Egypt has also demanded Israeli withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor (News on Air). Analysis: Egypt's dual role — border gatekeeper and reconstruction broker — gives it major leverage, conditioned on avoiding displacement into Sinai. Gulf States: Funding and Conditions Gulf states joined the Cairo summit and a later Istanbul conference with Turkey, Jordan, Pakistan, and Indonesia (Arab Progress). UN officials cite positive funding signals from Arab donors alongside Europe, Canada, and the US (ABC News; UN). Analysis: Gulf funding is expected to be conditioned on credible governance and security guarantees, since donors are wary of funding rebuilding that could be destroyed in renewed fighting or benefit an unreformed Hamas. International Actors: UN, EU, US, Arab League, IFIs The World Bank, UN, and EU jointly produced the damage assessments and run a Gaza/West Bank Trust Fund, replenished by $300 million in 2025 (World Bank). The US's September 2025 twenty-point plan and later "Board of Peace" proposed a technocratic committee under international oversight, an International Stabilization Force, and phased Israeli withdrawal (Israel Policy Forum; Baker Institute). A UN Security Council resolution on a multinational force was under discussion from January 2026 (Arab Progress). Governance Scenarios 1. PA-led governance. Mandate: PA, backed by the Arab/Cairo plan, aiming to reunify Gaza and the West Bank under "one law, one authority" (Israel Policy Forum). Feasibility: Depends on PA reform and Israeli acceptance, both uncertain. Risks: Limited PA legitimacy in Gaza after years of Hamas rule; corruption concerns. Accountability: Existing PA institutions, subject to donor conditions. 2. Technocratic/apolitical committee. Mandate: A ~10–15 member professional body, proposed both in Hamas-linked talks and the US "Board of Peace" framework, meant to sit above factional politics (Israel Policy Forum). Feasibility: Attractive compromise but lacks a defined timeline or enforcement mechanism. Risks: Unclear who selects members and to whom they answer; could mask continued Hamas influence or indefinite external control. Accountability: Weak unless paired with clear oversight. 3. International/multinational administration. Mandate: A UN-linked "Peace Council" or multinational stabilization force overseeing security and reconstruction through a transition to 2027 (Arab Progress; Wilson Center). Feasibility: Requires Security Council consensus and troop contributions — both difficult. Risks: Perceived by Palestinians as occupation; unclear exit path. Accountability: Could operate under UN reporting requirements, though enforcement powers raise sovereignty concerns. 4. Local/municipal governance. Mandate: Existing local councils and civil-society structures managing daily services. Feasibility: Already partly functioning informally but lacks resources and unified authority. Risks: Fragmentation and security vacuums exploitable by armed groups. Accountability: Closest to residents but least equipped to manage large funds. Reconstruction Pathways Funding: pledges expected from Gulf states, the EU, US, and Canada, likely via World Bank trust funds or a new mechanism (World Bank; ABC News). Oversight: donors likely require independent monitoring and phased disbursement tied to milestones. Anti-corruption: transparent procurement and auditing are recurring donor demands, not yet formalized. Humanitarian access: constrained by crossing policy, debris clearance, and ordnance removal (UN). Constraints: rebuilding cannot proceed without resolved border management, a recognized governing counterpart, and durable security guarantees. Key Takeaways No governance model for Gaza is finalized; PA-led, technocratic-committee, and international-administration options remain competing proposals with different legitimacy bases. Reconstruction needs are estimated at $53–71.5 billion, with roughly a quarter needed in the first 18 months. Israel's security requirements and border control are a practical veto point over any plan, whoever nominally governs. Egypt's Rafah role and 2025 Arab-endorsed $53 billion plan make it central to mediation and funding coordination. Gulf funding is likely conditioned on credible governance, oversight, and security guarantees. The UN, EU, US, and World Bank act as financiers and assessors, but no actor holds an uncontested mandate to run Gaza. Sources World Bank, damage assessment: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/02/18/new-report-assesses-damages-losses-and-needs-in-gaza-and-the-west-bank World Bank, country page: https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/country/westbankandgaza ABC News, rebuilding costs: https://abcnews.go.com/International/rebuilding-gaza-decades-cost-70b-experts/story?id=126593739 UN press briefing: https://www.un.org/unispal/document/unog-press-briefing-14oct25/ Baker Institute , Board of Peace: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/what-comes-next-gaza-and-trumps-board-peace Israel Policy Forum, institutions: https://israelpolicyforum.org/understanding-the-institutions-of-post-war-gaza/ Israel Policy Forum, four plans: https://israelpolicyforum.org/post-war-governance-in-gaza-comparison-of-four-plans/ Wilson Center, postwar plan: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/plan-postwar-gaza